Imagine this. A centre-left government behind in the polls against a surging conservative opposition.

An immigration and housing policy crisis causing anxiety amongst voters. Populist parties on the rise on the right and the hard left embracing anti-Semitism in response to Gaza.

Then along comes the Donald Trump 2.0 to the White House with his tariffs and related chaos and suddenly the political fortunes of the parties is reversed. Am I talking about Canada? I could be. But also Australia which goes to the polls on May 3 just a few days after Canada on April 28.

There are parallels. The Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was struggling in the opinion polls in late 2024, with the Peter Dutton led Liberal National Coalition ahead. In fact, there was a feeling that Albanese should delay the election as long as possible to bring down a pre-election budget to give himself a fighting chance of re-election.

In the end there was a delay in calling an election (due to Cyclone Alfred in North Queensland) but the political winds blowing across the Pacific from the Trump administration 2.0 have demonstrated to be much stronger (in an electoral sense) than anything Alfred could muster.

Now the incumbent Prime Minister Albanese is well ahead in the polls and there are 3 reasons for this: Trump, Trump and Trump.

After all, Australia (like Canada) is a trading nation and a tariff war would certainly hurt our economic prosperity particularly if the US had a trade spat with China and other nations of significant economic interest to Australia like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India and ASEAN.

Anthony Albanese, like Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, seized on trade as an issue to show the Australian people that tariffs were in no country’s interests. The Opposition leader ended up having to agree with the Government on trade, resisting the urge to adopt Trump type positions on international trade, but whilst still firing some warning shots on China with respect to defence (several Chinese vessels have to been found in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand).

The Opposition has also resisted Trump type policies, and rhetoric given the very different electoral system Australia has compared to the United States. Australia has compulsory and preferential voting. Therefore, the opportunity for Make America Great Again (MAGA) type populist movements and their green left equivalent are less effective, as the votes eventually make their way back to the major parties via preferences. There are also no executive orders as we have a Westminster system, like Canada and the UK of course.

The electoral system aside, the election in terms of issues, has been pretty typical of elections in western democracies in modern times. Labor is campaigning on the economy, offering cost of living relief, whilst simultaneously arguing that they have brought down inflation. The Government is also offering energy price relief, whilst touting their credential to move the Australian economy to ‘net zero’ in terms of carbon emissions, despite Australia’s comparative advantage in the export of coal, iron ore and natural gas.

In fact, a main policy difference is the Opposition is advocating nuclear power as a way of combatting climate change, given most western nations use nuclear power in their energy mix, and Australia has a comparative advantage in uranium. But the Government is focused in renewables – wind, solar, green hydrogen etc. whilst claiming that the Opposition has not costed its nuclear option appropriately, especially given the risks.

The parties are similar in housing policy, both are trying to offer young people incentives to buy a new home (Australian capital cities are notoriously expensive), both want reduced immigration (capping university places to foreign students amongst other measures) and both plan to spend big on infrastructure. No one wants to talk about tax or fiscal policy. And the shadow of the central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) looms large as a decision to cut interest rates in face of a possible global recession would be regarded as ‘political’ as would be a decision not to cut them. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as a former central bank governor in both Canada and England, would know all about this dilemma.

There are of course scare campaigns. Labor claims the opposition will gut Medicare (our universal health system) and cut public services jobs (Elon Musk style with an Australian department of government efficiency DOGE), the Opposition claims the Labor party will form a government with the radical greens and run a hard left anti-Israel pro-China foreign policy and an irresponsible economic stance. Scare campaigns often work if there is a skerrick of truth, or it is something the electorate believes already, otherwise they descend into hyperbole and become an own goal.

The bottom line. Nearly all polls predict the Albanese Labor Government will get back as it’s rare for an Australian government to only get one term (this last happened in the Great Depression with the Scullin Government 1929-32) and the punters usually give a government ‘another go’. And for the Opposition, if they manage to force the Labor Party into minority status it would be almost as good as win. But in any case, they won’t have long to wait until the next election, as in Australia, federal elections happen every 3 years.

Professor Tim Harcourt is Industry Professor and Chief Economist at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance (IPPG), at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) and host of The Airport Economist Channel: https://tickernews.co/shows/airporteconomist/